Trump’s Nuclear Ambitions Leaked

If you’re a miner, the last thing you want to see is water flooding into your operations. 

And that’s exactly what happened at Cigar Lake.

Why is that such a problem? Well, it’s because Cigar Lake is a uranium mine in northern Saskatchewan, and it sits on one of the richest undeveloped uranium deposits in the world. 

The mine’s owner, Cameco, was on the verge of production. At least, they were until the mine flooded and ruined everything. 

Then, it flooded again in 2008.

Meanwhile, the uranium market did pretty much what you’d expect — prices soared. 

Yet, Cigar Lake wasn’t the only reason why spot prices of uranium spiked to $136 a pound in 2007.

When the bubble finally burst, plenty of smaller miners went down with it.

As for Cigar Lake, Cameco didn’t start producing ore for another seven years in March of 2014.

Now, I’m bringing this up because of what happened at the end of September. 

A few of you might’ve noticed that the long-term uranium price (you know, the one most utilities actually pay), closed the month at $96.50 a pound. For the record, that’s above the $95 peak from 2007, and also the highest it’s ever been. Spot uranium closed the month at $89.63, which means that customers are paying more for supply later down the road than they were that day. 

But if uranium is back at record prices, who was going to dig it out of the ground?

If you’re thinking of any companies in the U.S., I have some bad news.

According to the EIA, U.S. mines produced about 2.1 million pounds of uranium concentrate in 2025. Keep in mind that the people who owned U.S. reactors ended up buying 46.9 million pounds that same year.

In other words, only 7% of our uranium demand actually came from domestic mines. Last year, Canada supplied us with 32% of our uranium supply, with Kazakhstan coming in a close second, accounting for 28% of our demand, and Australia coming in third at 15%.

To be fair, 2.1 million pounds is a lot better than it was; it’s more than triple the 657,000 pounds we produced in 2024, and the most since 2017. 

Meanwhile, drilling activity is on the rise, with companies drilling 1,824 exploratory holes last year — 37% higher than the year prior. 

At least we’re moving in the right direction.

However, the price tag is about to change. 

The average price American reactor owners paid in 2025 was $58.46 a pound, which was 11% higher than in 2024. Much of that uranium comes under long-term contracts, and with today’s long-term price at $96.50/lb, you can bet that spending will rise as old contracts roll off. 

Here’s the catch…

Even though higher prices traditionally lead to more new supply (that’s how every commodity cycle works), that’s not exactly what’s going to happen this time around. 

The reason is because a uranium project typically takes 15 to 20 years from identification to development. 

Remember, Cigar Lake took seven years just to recover from the flood.

Of course, that’s not to mention the fact that our current supply is already fragile. Last May, flooding collapsed a bridge on the main road to Cameco’s McArthur River and Key Lake operations in Saskatchewan. 

Anyone getting déjà vu too?

Key Lake’s production was suspended, and McArthur River’s mining was cut back for about two weeks. Overall, Cameco’s output from its Canadian operations during the first half of the year was down 5%.

The problem is that Kazakhstan isn’t exactly in a hurry to boost new supply. Officials announced in August 2025 that Kazatomprom would trim its planned 2026 output by about 3,000 tonnes of uranium, and the company recently reiterated 2026 guidance of 27,500 to 29,000 tonnes. 

It also delayed a new sulphuric acid plant, which was supposed to start up in the first quarter of 2027. It now looks like it won’t start until sometime in the third quarter of 2027 to the first quarter of 2028.

Let’s face it, most of the world’s uranium comes from a few select places, and none of them are rushing to increase supply. In fact, Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia produced about 75% of the world’s mine output in 2024.

Is the global uranium supply cushion officially gone? I’ll let you decide. 

Still, excess commercial inventories are no longer a significant source of supply, and China accounts for nearly all of the recent growth in utility stockpiles.

And even though most uranium is sold under long-term contracts, the numbers show that U.S. utilities’ coverage dropped from about 60% in 2030 to 9% by 2033.

That means American utilities are going to have to go shopping soon, and the shelves are already thinned out.

Trump’s Nuclear Ambitions

Fortunately, it appears that President Trump has taken notice.

Right now, the National Nuclear Security Administration is weighing a plan to buy about 4 million pounds of U.S.-origin uranium a year, starting as early as 2030. 

That’s roughly double what the entire country mined last year.

That’s on top of the Trump administration’s goal of getting 10 large reactors under construction by 2030. 

That’s why last month the U.S. and South Korea announced a framework for up to $120 billion of investment in eight more large reactors, which calls for $10 billion advance payment by the end of the year. 

Before you ask… Yes, every one of those reactors will need fuel for decades. 

And today, 93% of the fuel delivered to American plants comes from foreign sources. 

So we’ve got record prices at the same time that the easy supply is becoming harder to get, and a U.S. government eager to boost domestic production. 

It’s impossible for the U.S. to achieve those goals without pulling more uranium out of the ground. 

And you know what? 

This is how they’ll do it.